A new, younger Democratic candidate stands a big chance of winning and of rescuing the West
English original of article published in Italian by La Stampa on July 20
A favourite slogan of China’s President XI Jinping is that the American-led West is declining, to which his strategic partner Vladimir Putin likes to add that the West is mentally weak and is culturally debauched. The facts of America’s economic and technological strength contradict these claims, as does the strength and endurance of Western support for Ukraine. Yet politics on both sides of the Atlantic seems determined to prove Xi and Putin right.
It is not just that by preparing for an electoral contest in November between an 81-year-old suffering from memory loss and a 78-year-old insurrectionist the United States is trying hard to make the old Soviet Union leadership of Brezhnev, Andropov and Chernenko look vigorous and sane by comparison. It is that Joe Biden, the 81-year-old, looks determined to lose the contest by ignoring reality, while Donald Trump, the 78-year-old, looks determined if he wins it to destroy the very foundation of Western power, namely the alliance system connecting America, Europe and Japan.
The Republican National Convention this past week in Milwaukee has had the virtue of bringing us complete clarity about Trump’s thinking. His choice as his vice-presidential candidate of Senator J.D. Vance showed that he has no interest in widening his appeal to a broad range of Americans, nor in pretending he wants to collaborate with other countries.
Trump has chosen a clone of himself, not someone to add different strengths. This Republican electoral ticket is pure “America First”, promising to launch a trade war against Europe and Japan, to cut off aid to Ukraine, and even, in an interview Trump gave to Bloomberg a few days ago, to consider making Taiwan pay for the help it gets from America in its defence against China.
On the other side of the Atlantic the speech given on July 18 to the European Parliament by Ursula von der Leyen sounded impressive, especially given the possibility of the Trump-Vance ticket being elected on November 5th. Certainly, it was impressive enough to enable her to be elected for a second term as European Commission president by a more comfortable margin than she achieved for her first term in 2019.
The ambitions she outlined were well-matched to Europe’s clear need to strengthen its economy, to be more self-sufficient in the defence of its own continent, and to promote the energy transition. However, those ambitions do not look well-matched to the ability or willingness of EU member governments to make von der Leyen’s plans happen any time soon.
France currently has no government, and when it eventually gets a compromise coalition it will be weak, leaving a constant worry about whether new legislative elections might need to be called. Germany’s economy sadly deserves the title the Anglo-Saxon media love to give it of “the sick man of Europe” and the three-party coalition led by Olaf Scholz looks likely to limp its way feebly towards inevitable defeat in elections in September next year.
The Netherlands has a new right-wing government which is opposed to collective EU borrowing. Spain’s government shows no apparent interest in raising its currently low level of military spending. Italy’s government stands out for its stability, yet it too does not look in a strong position to raise its spending on defence and stands opposed to much of von der Leyen’s environmental agenda.
Hungary’s Viktor Orban, presently occupying the EU’s six-monthly rotating presidency, has been touring Beijing, Moscow, Kiev and Trump’s home in Florida trying to pursue his own foreign policy ideas, in contradiction with those of his fellow EU leaders. Poland is the only true “strong man” of Europe, spending more on defence than any other big member state and offering clearer and more convincing support for Ukraine than anyone else, but it cannot lead Europe to self-sufficiency or Ukraine to victory on its own.
It is a troubling picture. If that was not enough, we could add that the prime minister of Japan, Fumio Kishida, who has led that country’s dramatic defence build-up plan and initiated a pathbreaking industrial collaboration with Italy and the U.K. to design and build a next-generation fighter jet, is likely to lose his job in September thanks to financial scandals surrounding his party.
This troubling picture does not, however, mean that the West is doomed to prove Presidents Xi and Putin right, even if that is the way things look. Three important developments could start to turn things around and change this picture.
The first is that President Joe Biden could withdraw from the presidential race over the coming days, still in time to be replaced by a younger candidate for the Democratic Party. However much he tries, he cannot remove the fear felt by many American voters that he is too old to be entrusted with running the country for four more years.
Replacing him could prove complicated. But remember this: the most valuable words in any electoral campaign are “new” and “change”. A fresh candidate would be able to profit from Biden’s strong economic record, while also representing novelty and a new generation. Their chance of beating Trump would accordingly be high.
The second is that while Ursula von der Leyen’s agenda looks difficult to achieve, it is not impossible. If she could build a partnership with Poland, with her native Germany, weak though it may be, and conceivably Italy too, she might be able to make a surprising amount of progress on a common defence policy if that also looks able to promote industry and economic growth.
The third potential development could occur in Ukraine. This year has been a difficult one for Ukraine, but it also represents a second great failure for Russia. Russia’s attempted offensive to win back territory has ground to a halt, at huge cost. Ukraine is receiving more weapons from the West and is about to receive more than 70 F-16 fighter jets.
Americans often talk about an “October surprise” occurring in their election campaigns. This year, the September or October surprise could be new Ukrainian successes in the war, which could change perceptions of both Russia and its partner, China, by the time Americans go to vote and make their choice between a new, young Democrat and the 78-year-old Trump.
I enjoyed reading this. Not for a while now have I felt the refreshing spindrift of an upbeat and positive message as I and my fellow Europeans are usually plunged by the western (liberal) media into a gloomy sea of darkness. Thank you Bill. And now that Joe has "done the right thing" the allure of a younger and feisty pugilist in the form of Kamela Harris gives hope that the fight will now be taken to Trump and will put him as an 'old man' on the defensive. And then there is Ursula's re-election, a glimmer of hope for European leadership. Things are starting to look up. Storms ahead for sure, but there's enough ballast to steady democracy's many boats.
Looking forward to further insights as this political roller coaster of events seems to be without a slow news day!