The true frontrunner is Biden
English original of column published in Italian today by La Stampa
This week, he has presided over a glamorous state dinner and a series of summits which displayed the strength of America’s defence alliances with Japan and the Philippines to counter China. During Joe Biden’s presidency, the American economy has been the envy of the rich world, with 15 million jobs created, wages rising strongly even for the poorest, and US technology dominant. With that background, Biden should be re-elected on November 5th by a landslide.
It is never wise to make a forecast in April for an election that is six months away. Too many accidents can happen. But it is possible to say that the strangely widespread assumption that somehow a victory by Donald Trump is likely or even inevitable, looks the wrong bet to make at this early stage. The right bet is to consider Biden as the frontrunner.
That obsession with Trump makes sense in terms of preparation but not prediction. Depending on what happens to the balance of power in Congress and in state governorships, a second Trump term in the White House could be highly damaging to US democracy and its rule of law, and damaging also to America’s alliances. Everyone should think about how to respond if this were to happen, and, in the case of American voters, how to stop it from happening.
Yet this should not close our eyes to the reality: as things stand today, a victory for Biden is a much likelier outcome. Making plans for how to respond to a Biden second term is just as important for European governments and businesses.
It is true that currently opinion polls do not predict a clear Biden victory: they indicate an election that is roughly a 50-50 chance either way. His approval rating in polls, which is a favourite measure for the US media, is low for an incumbent president running for re-election. And not surprisingly few voters are happy that this November’s election will be between an 81-year-old Biden and a (by then) 78-year-old Trump, both of whom display the signs of mental impairment that are common for their age. Biden’s vice-president, Kamala Harris, is not popular, but it is unlikely that Trump’s will be a convincing substitute-president either.
A key strength of Trump is his ability to dominate the news agenda. Just as for Silvio Berlusconi being talked about was what mattered, so for Trump the fact that every day brings a new development in one of his many criminal and civil trials is a good thing, whatever that development might be. The oxygen of publicity is what he thrives on.
Yet behind that campaigning virtue also lies a big vice: that Trump is a highly polarising figure. He has created what must be defined as a cult, with his large group of loyal, even worshipping, “Make America Great Again”, supporters. But at the same time he is a man whom many Americans, especially independent voters, despise. Trump is both a love-figure and a hate-figure, whereas Biden is someone about whom people’s feelings are far more nuanced.
This was displayed openly during the Republican primaries that Trump fought against Nikki Haley and Ron DeSantis. He won the Republican nomination, but in almost every primary election his actual vote was substantially lower than the opinion polls had predicted. If polls are regularly overstating his support even among registered Republican voters, they are also likely to be doing so on a national basis.
For Biden, by contrast, a low approval rating may be a rather shallow indicator of what Americans will think when they are forced in November to choose between him and Trump. Understandable doubts about his age and consequent criticism of his decision to run for re-election must form a substantial part of that disapproval. But polls show that voters disapprove of both these candidates running again. So this factor is at best neutral when it comes to the real election.
Beyond the strong economy, which continues to outperform most economists’ predictions, Biden has two other big electoral advantages. The first is anger at the decision by the conservative-dominated Supreme Court in 2022 to overturn the right to abortion that had been famously established by the 1973 case of Roe versus Wade, and at the subsequent actions of Republican-controlled state legislatures to pass new highly restrictive abortion laws.
In the mid-term Congressional elections in November 2022 such anger about abortion, especially of course among female voters, gave the Democratic Party a big electoral success contrary to the predictions of almost all opinion polls. That abortion factor is bound again to play an important part in November’s Presidential, Congressional and State elections.
It could do so in combination with Biden’s second electoral advantage: that in a whole series of elections, registered Democrats have turned out to vote in much larger numbers than Republicans have. They seem to be more fired up by the threat that Trump and the Republicans pose to US democracy and to social rights, than Republicans are by any dislike of Biden or love for Trump. Trump has a cult, but he has not so far shown himself to be a successful energiser of a broader voting public.
There are some caveats against this view. Biden’s support for Israel in its war in Gaza does risk leading some Democratic voters to stay at home, especially Arab-Americans. But against that, it is wise to look at his big lead in fund-raising: at the end of March, Biden and his party held more than US$192 million against just US$93 million held by Trump and the Republican National Committee. Trump has some backers among billionaires, but is so far not succeeding in raising funds from a wider group of donors.
That gap might narrow, Biden might discredit himself, some big crisis might occur, the decisive ‘swing states’ might tip the election against him. But such risks affect both sides. As of today, the best assumption to make is that Biden is in a much stronger position. To plan ahead about business regulation, trade, defence spending, climate and all the other issues that count internationally, the right thing to think about is what a second Biden administration might do, not a Trump one.
Thank you for your assessment! I would like to think that the US "press", prefers to scare, (than report) by suggesting Trump has a lead over Biden, perhaps remembering the passivity of young voters, who preferred not to vote than to vote for H. Clinton. Also the foreign press is not very judicious in their reporting of this election, misrepresenting and causing fear mongering.
I pray you are right.