Hegemonic bullies like China, Russia and America flex their muscles because they are weak, not strong
English original of article published this morning in Italian by La Stampa
When China’s President Xi Jinping said during his three-day visit to Moscow that he was opposed to “hegemonic bullying”, it was almost possible to dream that he had finally turned against Vladimir Putin. It would be hard to find a better definition of “hegemonic bullying” than a country that annexes part of a neighbour by force and then eight years later attempts a full-scale invasion while threatening to use nuclear weapons if anyone else joins Ukraine’s side in the war.
He was actually, of course, referring to the United States of America, whether under Donald Trump or his predecessor Joe Biden. Pope Leone XIV might even agree with him in that regard, despite his American nationality. Alas, China’s “strategic partnership” with the war criminal Putin remains unbreakably strong and threatening. Nonetheless, although Europeans can expect no help from China in ending Putin’s war, protecting Europe’s security and preserving international humanitarian law, there is room for co-operation in protecting the world’s multilateral economic institutions from Trump’s bullying.
Even for a non-Catholic such as this author, there is some inspiration and comfort to be gained from witnessing the conclave and the massed faith and interest of people from all around the world in this papal process and appointment. For it reminds us that the world does not just consist of hegemonic bullies such as Trump, Xi and Putin, and that the values and interests that shape our world are not just those of national power and military coercion, important though those forces undoubtedly are.
Our natural obsession with the words and actions of the world’s three military superpowers tends to obscure an underlying reality: that all three are currently weak, not strong. Their bullying actions, in fact, reflect that weakness, which is what makes these superpowers dangerous: countries that are in political, economic or demographic decline have often resorted to nationalism and to international violence in the hope of containing domestic divisions and pressures. Trump’s threats against Canada, Greenland and Panama are not a sign of national self-confidence; just the opposite. The same is true of Putin’s brutal invasion of Ukraine and of the pressure Xi is putting on Taiwan and the Philippines.
This is not to say that Europe, South-East Asia or Japan look strong and self-confident by contrast. In a week when German’s new chancellor, Friedrich Merz, received a shock in parliament from his own coalition and when Britain made a rather humiliating, if minor, trade deal with the United States no one can pretend to feel especially good about themselves. The important point, rather, is that the superpowers’ bullying and our own weaknesses make multilateral rules and institutions more important, not less, as means through which other countries can push back against coercion and can collaborate.
Xi Jinping’s own need for collaboration explains why he goes to Moscow and makes statements that he must know are untrue. His country’s economy is stumbling, weakened by the aftermath of a slump in property and construction. His government is facing the rising public expense of dealing with the effects of that slump on banks and other financial institutions, and the rising health and pension costs that are coming with an ageing and declining population. China needs partners and until Trump came along to alienate much of the world its only real options as close friends were Russia and North Korea.
China’s population is not yet as old, on average, as are the populations of Japan and Italy, but it is catching up fast as its birth rate is now even lower than either of those countries. Surprisingly for a dictatorship, it shares the difficulty seen today in Italy and France of persuading workers to retire at ages that are older and less financially burdensome for the pension system: its retirement age is 60 for men and 55 for women, and yet its life expectancy has just overtaken that of the United States. China is no longer a rising economic superpower, and it shares the expenses and strains that are felt by richer countries.
A world of bullying but troubled superpowers is not one in which other countries need to choose sides. This is not a situation in which, out of national self-interest, it is desirable or necessary to attach your fortunes and future to what you see as the strongest horse in the race. The countries that we artificially summarise as being “the global south”, in Asia, Africa and Latin America, are generally resisting alliances and commitments for that reason. They will happily accept Chinese investment or overseas development aid, if it is offered, especially now that Trump’s America has chosen to abolish its own aid programme and to impose ridiculously high tariffs on their trade. But many of those countries now feel sufficiently confident and economically stable to avoid alliances and to operate independently.
The headlines will continue to be dominated by bilateral talks over trade and security with these bullying great powers. Following Britain’s trade deal with Trump, the next negotiations his team are due to conduct will be with China. War, whether in Ukraine, Gaza or, now, between India and Pakistan, must remain high on our list of concerns. Russia shows no sign of wanting peace in Ukraine. China is very likely soon to test Trump’s commitment to Indo-Pacific security by putting military pressure on America’s ally, the Philippines, by seeking to take more control over the South China Sea.
Yet even as this bullying goes on, the rest of the world can learn from the togetherness and shared commitment shown by the crowds in St Peter’s Square. We cannot fight China, Russia and America one by one. But in the rules and institutions that we have set up, above all in the European Union but also in other regions, we have mechanisms to be exploited and habits of collaboration to be preserved.
Britain now understands better than it did before Brexit the value of consulting and collaborating with its European neighbours, even if this week’s trade deal has muddied those waters. Chancellor Merz is known as a transatlanticist, but now surely understands that he and Germany need Europe more than ever before. Our partnerships are less polite in public than is the one between Russia and China, but they are more genuine. Our task now is to show that they are also more lasting.
Government bonds’ yields aren’t just market data points; in some circumstances they became tools of discipline. Markets have the power to force the hand of entire governments. They don’t just react; they call for clear and sustainable actions. It doesn’t matter how large a country’s GDP was, how modern its institutions, how strong its military, or how charismatic its leadership. If the market’s confidence is lost, the consequences are immediate and brutal.
According to the UN there were 14000 civilians killed in the Donbass following the U.S. coup in 2014 and its arming of the Ukrainian Nazis. Putin should have gone in sooner. And I’m not aware of China invading anyone. But here’s me telling you what the whole world already knows 🤔