Italy, from country of the year to country of the decade?
English original of my column in today's La Stampa
It is wonderful that my friends and former colleagues at The Economist have named Italy as “the country of the year”. Both in my time as editor (1993-2006) and since, we’ve used a lot of strong and critical language, “unfit”, “screwed”, “sick man”; but always such words described Italian politics, of course, rather than Italians in general. That said, politics is unfortunately rather important. Which raises a question: what will foreign media and the business-people who read them think about Italy next month, let alone next year?
The question is important, as everyone knows, because of the choice of the new President of the Republic, in parliamentary elections starting on January 20th. For does this suddenly positive view of Italy depend on Mario Draghi remaining prime minister, or will it evaporate just as suddenly if he goes to the Quirinale, causing a government crisis?
To find our answers, we need to stand back a little. Too much news coverage about Italy, including in the foreign media, focuses on day-to-day, very short-term political arguments and personalities. So quite often when I read foreign articles on the issue of Draghi and the Quirinale, I see a phrase about such a move being likely to return Italy to “political instability”.
In my opinion, this is the wrong way to think about what happens if a man of Draghi’s reputation, skills and credibility becomes head of state for the next seven years. That sounds more like stability to me. It does so especially when you compare it with the real alternative: if he were to stay at Palazzo Chigi then at some point during 2022 the political ceasefire between Lega, Partito Democratico and Cinque Stelle that has enabled Draghi’s broad coalition to function in 2021 will break down as everyone will begin campaigning for the general election. It will become virtually impossible to pass new laws.
The real choice is another few months of the kind of decisive, effective Draghi government that in 2021 helped earn Italy its new kudos, followed by many months of ineffective government, perhaps even so ineffective as to damage Draghi’s own reputation. This may sound pessimistic. But knowing the reality of politics and elections, it seems realistic.
Draghi is not the only reason why Italy’s reputation changed during 2021. To foreign observers, Italian society has shown remarkable resilience and even solidarity in the face of the Covid pandemic, after a tragic start. We see a society we like to stereotype as being full of furbi (cunning) rule-breakers that during the pandemic has actually been better than Britain or the United States at accepting rules about lockdowns, masks and social distancing, and which has a higher rate of vaccination than either of those two countries.
We also saw, under both Conte and Draghi, governments that were able to provide quite consistent, coherent and well-communicated health and social policies, during such a challenging time. And then, yes under Draghi, we have seen an impressive and highly competent design and early implementation of the Piano Nazionale di Ripresa e Resilienza. Like Britain, Italy suffered a severe economic slump during 2020, as a result of which it is recovering quite rapidly this year. Unlike Britain, that recovery looks quite resilient in the face of the new uncertainties created by the Omicron variant.
The real issue is whether the strength exhibited during 2021 can be sustained. In practical terms, this means whether the PNRR can be run as well during the next four years as during its first year, and whether the reforms to justice, public administration and taxes that have been begun this year can be carried on by future governments and made permanent.
The risk, as always with such fundamental reforms in a country in which governments change so frequently, is that after a brief, bright start the reforms will be allowed to fade away. If that happens, the big economic risk is that after several strong years of growth fuelled by €221 billion of public investment, the momentum will be lost and the economy will slump again.
Which brings us back to the question on every Italian’s mind and in many foreign commentaries, about Mario Draghi and the presidency. In my view, what is needed to maintain Italy’s great momentum in 2022 and beyond is for the public debate about social and economic measures to be led, over many years, by a figure held in high national and international regard.
The one thing that is certain is that the occupancy of Palazzo Chigi will change at least twice before the PNRR ends in 2026, perhaps even three times. So my view is that having achieved such a fine start since he took office in February, Mario Draghi’s best option, both for him personally and for the nation, is for him to be elected president in January, and then leave the parties to try to form a new government in his wake.
He can be a kind of father of the nation, a leading participant in and shaper of the public and political debate. The task is to make Italy not just “country of the year” but “country of the decade”. Putting Mario Draghi in the Quirinale would be the best next step in such an aspiration.
Bravo - I’ve been bullish on Italy for a long time, despite the seemingly endless governance problems. It’s the self-critical Italians who are the most pessimistic about their future. So for me, it would be of interest to know what the reaction has been to your La Stampa piece. 🎄🇮🇹