On Mario Draghi as Cristiano Ronaldo
Better to see Italy's conscripted prime minister as super-talented than a super-hero
The simplicity of using Mario Draghi’s first name and aligning him with the popular Japanese video-game character, Super Mario, is of course tempting, which is why so many headline-writers have done so. The same happened with the last non-political Mario to be given the task of leading an Italian government out of an economic crisis, Mario Monti, in 2011-13. Both are distinguished economists, both enjoying great reputations and respect across Europe and indeed the world, thanks to their previous successful roles in the European Commission (Monti) and the European Central Bank (Draghi). Yet the case of Mario Monti, like those of all the so-called “technocratic” prime ministers Italy has had since the practice was initiated in 1993 with another former central banker, Carlo Azeglio Ciampi, should act as a warning. There is only so much an outsider can do to tame and transform the Italian political jungle. Ascribing any of them with the powers of a super-hero is to set yourself up for disappointment. Yes, this applies even to Mr Draghi, whose phrase “whatever it takes” is credited with having magically saved the euro in 2012.
Fortunately, a better analogy was produced on February 4th by Giancarlo Giorgetti, deputy-secretary of the right-wing Lega party, a man who appears to have taken on the task of persuading his boss, Matteo Salvini, to lend his support to Mr Draghi’s proposed government of national unity. Mr Draghi, said Mr Giorgetti, is “fuoriclasse”, meaning an undisputed champion, “like Ronaldo”. The reason I favour this comparison is that while Mr Draghi is clearly a champion public official and economist, as with Cristiano Ronaldo his ultimate success will depend on the team of which he forms part. And by team I don’t just mean the government he assembles, which might end up being as talented, in a way, as Juventus, but rather the overall political team which will provide his surroundings.
There is an old saying in Japanese politics that “an inch ahead is darkness”, and the reason this applies equally to both Japan and Italy is that in both countries personalities and personal power-plays are the dominant forces, at least in the short term. This is why, when an Italian government is being formed in the current manner, against a rather fractured parliamentary scene, the mood can switch abruptly from day to day or even hour to hour as to whether the government will actually get off the ground. But in the light that we have right now, it does seem as if Mr Draghi will be Italy’s next prime minister. The real question is, for how long?
He does look likely to succeed because in the past 24 hours some crucial voices have come out in his favour. Beppe Grillo, the comedian who co-founded the Muovimento Cinque Stelle (Five Star) and Luigi di Maio, foreign minister in the outgoing Conte government and the movement’s de facto parliamentary leader, both said publicly that it was necessary to listen to Draghi’s plans. That is code for “we’d like to join in”. Silvio Berlusconi, leader of the centre-right Forza Italia, has made similar noises. Mr Giorgetti’s Lega remains on the fence, but small-business backers in Italy’s north-east, Lega’s heartland, are clearly in favour, as is Mr Giorgetti personally. His boss Mr Salvini may worry about being outflanked on his right by Giorgia Meloni and her Fratelli d’Italia (Brothers of Italy) party, but in the end it seems that she will end up being the only hold-out and Lega will come in. Crucially for Cinque Stelle and the centre-left Partito Democratico, this breadth of support would mean that Matteo Renzi, their now-hated nemesis, would no longer hold the balance of power. So he can be in the broad national unity coalition without being able to hold it to ransom.
So far so good for Mr Draghi. Things may still turn sticky when it comes to actually forming the government and handing out ministries, some time next week, but let us be optimistic and assume this skilled operator will find his way through that. This then leaves the big question: what can he actually achieve and how long will he have to try to achieve it? The key point is that it is a mistake in Italy to propose or still less expect radical transformations. The shelves creak with books and reports laying out the reforms the country needs, in public administration, justice, education, the pension system, infrastructure, the tax system and much else. But these are “libri di sogni”, books of dreams, destined to gather dust and never to be converted into reality. What is possible is incremental change, which at best can be accelerated briefly by a government such as Mr Draghi’s.
He has at least one year, for on the likely assumption that a government formed now can last until June Italy then enters what is known as “the white semester” when elections are forbidden under the constitution during the final six months of the term of the head of state, President Sergio Mattarella. Once a new president has been chosen by parliament (or President Mattarella stays on for a second seven year term), elections can again be possible so there is a chance of the government crumbling then. Alternatively, the government may survive until elections are officially due, which is the end of May 2023. Thus Mr Draghi’s scoring opportunity, to stay with the Ronaldo analogy, looks to be between 12 and 26 months.
That is not long, even for an “undisputed champion”. His big advantage is that there is money to spend: the expected €209 billion in grants and loans from the EU Recovery Fund. Plans are expected to be submitted by the end of March to the European Commission for approval. Mr Draghi has written last year about the need for governments to spend generously, distinguishing also between what he described as “good debt” and “bad debt”, in other words between the productive use of borrowed funds and unproductive, wasteful uses. His big task will be to deploy that European money in productive ways. Alongside that process, helped by the fact that change is easier when money is being spread around, he can attempt to bring in some reforms so as to boost that productiveness, especially to public administration and to some aspects of the justice system that obstruct investment.
Beyond that, however, we should not expect miracles. The EU and financial markets will see him as a very skilled, dependable pair of hands, or in Ronaldo terms, feet. If anyone can direct the spending of that influx of European funds well, he can. And he might well be good at getting Italy’s vaccination programme to move a lot faster, which is crucial for economic recovery. The political team around him will not, however, be Juventus.