Party like it's 2010

Extended English original of article published today in Italian by La Stampa, on the return of David Cameron

Every prime minister uses surprises to catch the public’s attention, and even Britain’s safety-first leader Rishi Sunak is no exception. By appointing his predecessor from 2010-16, David Cameron, as Foreign Secretary, Prime Minister Sunak has guaranteed positive, if puzzled, media coverage of a cabinet reshuffle made necessary by his need to fire his rebellious Home Secretary, Suella Braverman. As a very smooth character who is comfortable with diplomacy, Cameron probably looks to Sunak like a safe sort of surprise. Yet this appointment comes with disadvantages, too.

From the point of view of the pro-Brexit right-wing of Sunak’s Conservative Party, the big disadvantage with David Cameron is that as prime minister he led the (unsuccessful) campaign against Brexit in 2016. That right-wing group will also suspect Cameron of wanting to bring Britain closer to its former EU partners, which to them is still a form of betrayal.

On the other hand, having him as Foreign Secretary is not going to appease pro-European voters, as they still hold him responsible for Brexit by calling, and losing, what many see as having been an unnecessary 2016 referendum. Moreover, many others in the Conservative Party think that when he was prime minister Cameron was naively pro-China, given his talk at that time of UK-China relations entering “a golden age”. He was also, with his Chancellor of the Exchequer, George Osborne, the architect of a half-decade of public-service-cutting austerity policies that arguably made the Brexit vote likelier by prolonging the economic pain felt by many areas of Britain following the 2008 global financial crisis.

Finally, from Sunak’s own point of view this appointment is a problematic one. During his so-far one year in office, he has tried to position himself as representing a change of face and approach from the previous 13 years of Conservative prime ministers, justifying this claim of novelty on his youth, his Indian ethnic heritage and the fact that he had been pro-Brexit right from the start. So bringing back the old face who was prime minister for the first six of those 13 years rather destroys this argument.

So it is a genuine surprise that Sunak has decided to embrace these disadvantages. The biggest risk he faces, from the combination of his dismissal of the very right-wing, anti-immigration Suella Braverman and his appointment of this smooth, anti-Brexit throwback, David Cameron, is of a split in the Conservative Party that could force him to call a general election in the first half of 2024, rather than October 2024 as most pundits expect.

Nonetheless, the risk is probably worth taking. David Cameron brings with him a level of experience and diplomatic credibility that Sunak will find valuable at a time when Britain is contending with severe, hard-to-handle international crises in Gaza and Ukraine, let alone the always tense US-China relationship. At most, Cameron will be foreign secretary for one year, so any contradictions in his views are unlikely to matter too much. And whatever one’s opinion of him might be, Cameron is not a rebel or a trouble-maker.

In fact, from the point of view of Britain’s European friends such as Italy, France, Germany and Poland, the return of a moderate figure such as Cameron can be seen as the start of a longer-term restoration of the United Kingdom they thought they once knew. Not that they found Cameron a very friendly diplomatic counterpart when he was prime minister, smooth-talking though he may be: he tried (and failed) to torpedo an EU fiscal treaty in 2011, and those with long memories will blame him for Brexit too.

Still, by comparison with many of his predecessors in the Foreign Office over the past seven years — Johnson, Raab, Truss — he is at least an adult who knows what diplomacy is about. James Cleverley was well respected but no heavyweight, and his new role as Home Secretary will keep him in the diplomatic game as far as immigration policies are concerned.

Most of all, our European, American and Japanese allies can now start to assume that in diplomatic terms at least the Good Ship Britain will now sail more steadily for the foreseeable future. For although Cameron himself will likely be at the Foreign Office just for one year, his probable successor in the Labour government that opinion polls suggest will be elected by a landslide next May or October will also be a moderate figure who will be keen to work more closely with old allies and friends.

Therefore perhaps, rather than seeing the return of David Cameron as being a radical move we should see it as a return to something like the old Britain, in terms of diplomacy: centrist, reassuring, experienced and internationalist. Well, at least we can hope so.