Ukraine is in the unfortunate position of being the Western neighbor of the Russian bear. There's nothing they can do about that, nor is there anything the US or anyone else can do to remedy that geographic plight. As long as they continue to assert independence from Russian influence, they will face a stressful future. In retrospect, the US should have allowed them to keep their nuclear weapons and they should have insisted upon it. Now, though, Trump has a point that Europe has a much greater interest in defending Ukraine against Russia than we do, and is perfectly economically capable of doing so. It is also perfectly capable of defending itself. The US, on the other hand, is $36 trillion in debt and faces a much more formidable enemy in China. 80 years of protecting wealthy Europeans so they could finance their welfare state was more than generous.
As to Canada, what has Carney really accomplished? Polliviere arguably could have gotten the same or better deal from Trump.
What is clear is Trump's Derangement Syndrome can galvanize people against him as well as for him, to the extent that it turned around the Canadian election which would have been a cakewalk for conservatives.
He has also led you, an erudite and intelligent commentator, to write off the most powerful country in the world, even though there is a better than even chance that Trump’s influence will not extend beyond 2028.
He is the most powerfully polarizing President in American history.
I have not written off America. I have written off the prospect of America providing leadership either in security (including for the reasons that you cite) or in international trade, economics or law. We cannot know what will happen after 2028, for better or worse. So what governments, and we as informed citizens, need to do is to adapt to the reality that, for the time being, America is no longer either a leader or an ally. In adapting, we should be careful not to destroy institutions that we and America might value again after 2028. But adapt we must.
Government bonds’ yields aren’t just market data points; in some circumstances they became tools of discipline. Markets have the power to force the hand of entire governments. They don’t just react; they call for clear and sustainable actions. It doesn’t matter how large a country’s GDP was, how modern its institutions, how strong its military, or how charismatic its leadership. If the market’s confidence is lost, the consequences are immediate and brutal.
Bill, I agree with your criticism of Trump' policies, but I worry, as I argued in my latest post, that demonizing Trump as the sole root of all evils diverts attention from the deeper problem, which is the underlying weakening of western institutions over the past two decades or more. Yes, Trump's security guarantee to Ukraine is unreliable. But that's nothing new, sadly. when Ukraine gave up its nuclear weapons, both Europe and the US guaranteed the security of Ukraine's borders, and neither Europe nor Biden's America kept their word. Also: you count on Germany's leadership, but what are we to make of the fact that Germany's largest political party, supported by almost one German in three, is apparently an "extremist organization"? Does that make Germany a reliable leader? I'm not disputing any of your criticisms -- I just worry that our problems are much deeper than Trump, and will prove more long-lasting than his presidency. And our leadership and institutional weaknesses extend far beyond America's borders.
Marco, I agree entirely that it is foolish to treat Trump as the sole root of all evils. But it is surely not wrong to consider him the sole author of US foreign policy, 2025-29; and I don't think one can argue that his foreign policy choices are an inevitable consequence of underlying trends. In particular, while strengthening alliances and pressuring allies to do more would be a logical response to long-term trends, he is dynamiting alliances. Nonetheless I certainly agree that our leadership and institutional weaknesses extend far beyond America. On Germany, I also agree that that designation of AfD is deeply stupid and dangerous.
Thanks Bill, and I agree. I also do not believe that US foreign policy was on a pre-determined path, and Trump's handling of it is very far from what I'd like to see. Indeed this is why elections are consequential -- individual leaders do matter. My concern is that the underlying trends are making it less and less likely to get leaders with the attitudes, priorities and abilities that I think both you and I would wish for.
Shocking ignorance and delusion. The U.S. will continue funding the proxy war against Russia , will continue providing intelligence and will be using European proxies for the meat mincer whilst the dopey and craven EU vassals have been ordered to spend a fortune on American weapons to shore up a bankrupt U.S. There is no Ukraine left, The women were exiled and its young men are all dead. The U.S. has ordered Europe to keep Russia busy while it takes out Iran so it can take down China and then it will be back to finish off Russia. Then we can all look forward to the most brutal and “badass” global dictatorship in history - courtesy of “the greatest country in the world”.
As for Carney, you’re dealing with another deep state puppet. Enjoy.
Ukraine is in the unfortunate position of being the Western neighbor of the Russian bear. There's nothing they can do about that, nor is there anything the US or anyone else can do to remedy that geographic plight. As long as they continue to assert independence from Russian influence, they will face a stressful future. In retrospect, the US should have allowed them to keep their nuclear weapons and they should have insisted upon it. Now, though, Trump has a point that Europe has a much greater interest in defending Ukraine against Russia than we do, and is perfectly economically capable of doing so. It is also perfectly capable of defending itself. The US, on the other hand, is $36 trillion in debt and faces a much more formidable enemy in China. 80 years of protecting wealthy Europeans so they could finance their welfare state was more than generous.
As to Canada, what has Carney really accomplished? Polliviere arguably could have gotten the same or better deal from Trump.
What is clear is Trump's Derangement Syndrome can galvanize people against him as well as for him, to the extent that it turned around the Canadian election which would have been a cakewalk for conservatives.
He has also led you, an erudite and intelligent commentator, to write off the most powerful country in the world, even though there is a better than even chance that Trump’s influence will not extend beyond 2028.
He is the most powerfully polarizing President in American history.
I have not written off America. I have written off the prospect of America providing leadership either in security (including for the reasons that you cite) or in international trade, economics or law. We cannot know what will happen after 2028, for better or worse. So what governments, and we as informed citizens, need to do is to adapt to the reality that, for the time being, America is no longer either a leader or an ally. In adapting, we should be careful not to destroy institutions that we and America might value again after 2028. But adapt we must.
his influence in the repub party may last for a long time-like the 'lost cause' of the civil war,misremembered and falsely glorified
The issues that created MAGA will not go away, so neither will the movement by whatever name.
right
The new reality of a post-American world it will be form after a long period of wars.
Government bonds’ yields aren’t just market data points; in some circumstances they became tools of discipline. Markets have the power to force the hand of entire governments. They don’t just react; they call for clear and sustainable actions. It doesn’t matter how large a country’s GDP was, how modern its institutions, how strong its military, or how charismatic its leadership. If the market’s confidence is lost, the consequences are immediate and brutal.
Bill, I agree with your criticism of Trump' policies, but I worry, as I argued in my latest post, that demonizing Trump as the sole root of all evils diverts attention from the deeper problem, which is the underlying weakening of western institutions over the past two decades or more. Yes, Trump's security guarantee to Ukraine is unreliable. But that's nothing new, sadly. when Ukraine gave up its nuclear weapons, both Europe and the US guaranteed the security of Ukraine's borders, and neither Europe nor Biden's America kept their word. Also: you count on Germany's leadership, but what are we to make of the fact that Germany's largest political party, supported by almost one German in three, is apparently an "extremist organization"? Does that make Germany a reliable leader? I'm not disputing any of your criticisms -- I just worry that our problems are much deeper than Trump, and will prove more long-lasting than his presidency. And our leadership and institutional weaknesses extend far beyond America's borders.
Marco, I agree entirely that it is foolish to treat Trump as the sole root of all evils. But it is surely not wrong to consider him the sole author of US foreign policy, 2025-29; and I don't think one can argue that his foreign policy choices are an inevitable consequence of underlying trends. In particular, while strengthening alliances and pressuring allies to do more would be a logical response to long-term trends, he is dynamiting alliances. Nonetheless I certainly agree that our leadership and institutional weaknesses extend far beyond America. On Germany, I also agree that that designation of AfD is deeply stupid and dangerous.
Thanks Bill, and I agree. I also do not believe that US foreign policy was on a pre-determined path, and Trump's handling of it is very far from what I'd like to see. Indeed this is why elections are consequential -- individual leaders do matter. My concern is that the underlying trends are making it less and less likely to get leaders with the attitudes, priorities and abilities that I think both you and I would wish for.
Shocking ignorance and delusion. The U.S. will continue funding the proxy war against Russia , will continue providing intelligence and will be using European proxies for the meat mincer whilst the dopey and craven EU vassals have been ordered to spend a fortune on American weapons to shore up a bankrupt U.S. There is no Ukraine left, The women were exiled and its young men are all dead. The U.S. has ordered Europe to keep Russia busy while it takes out Iran so it can take down China and then it will be back to finish off Russia. Then we can all look forward to the most brutal and “badass” global dictatorship in history - courtesy of “the greatest country in the world”.
As for Carney, you’re dealing with another deep state puppet. Enjoy.