The case for weaponising Europe's purchases of Russian gas, oil and coal is not about reducing dependency. It is about winning the war in Ukraine as quickly as possible
On the Germans stance: How many centuries of body bags does it take to learn to do right? Pardon my Shakespeare: Coriolanus Act III, Sc. i What should the people do with these bald tribunes? ...
Of general ignorance, it must omit
Real necessities, and give away the while To unstable slightness. Purpose so barr'd it follows, Nothing is done to purpose.... Your dishonour Mangles true judgment, and bereaves the state Of that integrity which should become 't : Not having the power to do the good it would For the ill which doth control't.
I question the premise "My vote would be for cutting off oil and gas purchases. In my view, if we don’t do that we are showing we are not serious about winning this war"
Even if all of Europe were to stop buying Russian oil and gas, its effects would take a long time to have meaningful effect. Meanwhile Putin would pursue a scorched earth policy and would leave Ukraine in shambles, resulting in countless civilians killed and millions of people displaced. He will also sell some of the oil and gas to China, India and others. The ruble has already recovered to its pre-war levels. Putin has been adjusting to sanctions since he invaded Crimea, for example, banning European food imports, amassing huge reserves of gold and tying the value of the ruble to gold to facilitate trade in gold or the ruble.
Putin exercises brute power and he only responds to brute power. Only a quick and decisive military defeat in Ukraine will convince Putin to withdraw completely. Whether we like it or not NATO needs to provide direct military forces and not just equipment. During WWII when Jews and others were systematically exterminated, some claimed they did not know what was happening. Today, we cannot live in a state of denial given live video coverage of cities in ruins and civilians lying in the streets and all of this unfolding on our 24 hour news channels.
Unfortunately, the west and America are seen as paper tigers by dictators, given how they withdrew from Afghanistan, how Obama drew red lines in Syria and did not act when Putin used chemical weapons or when Putin took over Crimea. Despite all the sanctions, North Korea has developed nuclear weapons. Even a partial military victory for Putin in Ukraine will only embolden him and encourage similar adventures in the future. In the meantime, sanctions of oil are speeding up shipments to China reinforcing that alliance, and the lesson of western passivity is making China more likely to subjugate Taiwan. Despite sanctions North Korea developed nuclear weapons.
Wars are not won by boycotts and sanctions but on the battle fields; they are meaningless to a brutal dictator like Putin.
On the Germans stance: How many centuries of body bags does it take to learn to do right? Pardon my Shakespeare: Coriolanus Act III, Sc. i What should the people do with these bald tribunes? ...
Of general ignorance, it must omit
Real necessities, and give away the while To unstable slightness. Purpose so barr'd it follows, Nothing is done to purpose.... Your dishonour Mangles true judgment, and bereaves the state Of that integrity which should become 't : Not having the power to do the good it would For the ill which doth control't.
I question the premise "My vote would be for cutting off oil and gas purchases. In my view, if we don’t do that we are showing we are not serious about winning this war"
Even if all of Europe were to stop buying Russian oil and gas, its effects would take a long time to have meaningful effect. Meanwhile Putin would pursue a scorched earth policy and would leave Ukraine in shambles, resulting in countless civilians killed and millions of people displaced. He will also sell some of the oil and gas to China, India and others. The ruble has already recovered to its pre-war levels. Putin has been adjusting to sanctions since he invaded Crimea, for example, banning European food imports, amassing huge reserves of gold and tying the value of the ruble to gold to facilitate trade in gold or the ruble.
Putin exercises brute power and he only responds to brute power. Only a quick and decisive military defeat in Ukraine will convince Putin to withdraw completely. Whether we like it or not NATO needs to provide direct military forces and not just equipment. During WWII when Jews and others were systematically exterminated, some claimed they did not know what was happening. Today, we cannot live in a state of denial given live video coverage of cities in ruins and civilians lying in the streets and all of this unfolding on our 24 hour news channels.
Unfortunately, the west and America are seen as paper tigers by dictators, given how they withdrew from Afghanistan, how Obama drew red lines in Syria and did not act when Putin used chemical weapons or when Putin took over Crimea. Despite all the sanctions, North Korea has developed nuclear weapons. Even a partial military victory for Putin in Ukraine will only embolden him and encourage similar adventures in the future. In the meantime, sanctions of oil are speeding up shipments to China reinforcing that alliance, and the lesson of western passivity is making China more likely to subjugate Taiwan. Despite sanctions North Korea developed nuclear weapons.
Wars are not won by boycotts and sanctions but on the battle fields; they are meaningless to a brutal dictator like Putin.